Integrated Geographic Information Systems and Multi-Agents Systems Approach to Urban Fire Hazards Modeling: A Case Study of Intramuros, Manila

Ernanie Salvador T. Non^{1, 2} and Claro Jose C. Manipon^1,2

¹School of Earth and Materials Science and Engineering, MIT, Manila
²School of Graduate Studies, MIT, Manila

Abstract

This study aimed to establish a new approach to urban fire hazards modeling, integrating GIS and Multi-Agents Systems (MAS). The structures in the crowded but historically significant district of Intramuros, Manila were classified based on the following parameters: density, use, volume, electrical status, age, proximity to roads, and proximity to fire hydrant. Patterned after Fisher’s equation, a fire susceptibility map was produced by summing up the weighted values of each category. Using the fire susceptibility map, a MAS – based model was created to simulate the behavior of the system on the occurrence of fire. The simulation included fire growth, fireman navigation, firemen communications, and fire suppression. Scenarios were generated to identify patterns and trends, limits and suitable standards for fire suppression, and correlation and non-correlation between parameters.

The classification resulted in 9 fire rating classes-- from 1 representing structures least susceptible to fire, up to 9 representing structures extremely susceptible to fire. Most of the structures in the study area (above 90%) have fire ratings of 2, 3 or 4. Three clusters of informal settlers located in different corners of the area fittingly obtain fire ratings of 8 and 9. The model spatially illustrated how fire spread is affected by the direction of wind and the spatial configuration of structures. The model provided a measure of the increase in the total burnt area due to the increase in material-based fire spread probability. The effect of an increase in the time of fire call was quantified by the total FireSize and the time it takes for the fireman to suppress fire. One of the findings was though there was the increase in the computed number of firemen required as a result of the decrease in fire to fireman ratio, not all the firemen notified reached the fire site during fire suppression. This may be due to the travel time of firemen from other stations toward Intramuros and may be addressed by assigning additional firemen within Intramuros.

This study demonstrated that GIS gives spatial dimension to fire susceptibility ratings while MAS modeling can be used to study fire growth and suppression in an urban setting. It also demonstrated how to utilize the full potential of tools such as GIS and MAS through integration and coupling. The combined use of GIS and MAS modeling facilitates planning against urban fire hazards.